Sunday, February 19, 2017

Sports :: Trading the Under/Over 2.5 Goals Market in Football

Trading the Under / Over 2.5 Goals Market in Football (Soccer) MatchesOne of the most popular markets to trade in football matches is the under/over 2.5 goals.  The reasons for this are obvious; it doesn't matter to the bet which team wins, or if one team is much superior to another.  You have an interest in virtually every kick of the ball; every time the ball goes into the 'final' third you are either willing the ball into the net (if you are on the 'overs'), or hoping the attack fizzles out (if you are on the 'unders').  

The bet is only finished when the final whistle goes, or the third goal is scored.You can just make a judgement by looking at the scoring statistics for the two teams, and place a straight bet on the unders or the overs, and lots of people do just that.  It's quite straightforward to look up any a website how many times each team has been over or under in the previous 10 games for instance.  Unfortunately, the bookmakers also look at the statistics and set their prices accordingly.  If a goal fest is expected then the price for over 2.5 goals will be set at 1.60 for example.  

Another way to play the market is to trade, and that is what this article is about.  To trade you need to have an account with a Betting Exchange which enables you to back or lay an outcome.  Betfair is the one I use, and full details on how to open an account can be obtained from my website.Trading on the under/over 2.5 goals is a low risk, low profit system.  

This is how you do it.
1)    Each morning have a look at your betting exchange and check which games are going to go 'in-play', this means that you can carry on betting on it after the match has started - in fact right through to the final whistle.  It is absolutely essential that you only pick matches which are traded in-play.
2)    Select a match from the in-play list which is one of the bigger leagues in Europe, i.e. English Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga.  These are the games which attract the biggest turnover, and work best with this method.
3)    Your first bet of the trade is to Back the Unders.  To do this you just place a back bet with your exchange at the current price, lets say the bet is ?100 at 1.90 .  You can do this at any time prior to kick-off, about 4-5 hours before kick-off is ideal.
4)    As soon as this first bet is matched,, then you need to place your lay bet.  The bet is simply a lay for the same value at a shorter price than your back bet.  I usually go for two pips pf profit, so my lay bet would be for ?100 at 1.88 in this example.  If you are using Betfair then you should check the box to 'keep' the bet when the match goes in-play.
5)    Your lay bet will probably not get matched immediately, and you can leave your computer and go out now, as long as you have checked the box to keep the bet when the in-play market forms.
6)    Quite often your lay bet will be matched before the match starts as prices fluctuate during the hours prior to kick-off (this is why it is best to choose the games with the most liquidity).  If the lay bet isn't matched before kick-off then an interesting thing happens when the game goes in-play; as the minutes tick by without a goal the price for the unders drops until a goal is scored.  Within about 2-3 minutes of kick-off your lay bet will be matched.
7)    The obvious risk is that if you haven't traded out prior to kick-off then if there is a goal in the first minute or two then your original bet may not get matched, as soon as a goal is scored all bets are cancelled and a new market forms which will have new prices depending on how many goals have been scored, and how long is left in the game.
8)    Most of the time your lay bet will be matched and you will have a profitable outcome.  
9)    More details of this and other betting systems on my website Online Bookmakers.